Monday, 19 November 2012

Tropical Cyclone Outlook - Tuesday 20 November

This is why I love living in the South Pacific. I welcome any suggestions on what should go in my emergency grab bag, should the cyclone come!

South Pacific - Tropical Disturbance TD02F west of Rotuma analysed near 11S 168E at 9AM this morning. Pressures are falling in the region and model output indicates this system will continue to intensify. Currently the low is moving slowly WSW however forecasts indicate this system will shortly start to move south then southeastwards passing well to the west of Fiji on Thursday morning.

Risk of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 72 hours has been upgraded to MODERATE. Countries likely to be affected are Vanuatu and Fiji initially, and possibly southern Tonga later.

No other areas of interest in the region at this time.


North Pacific - No suspect areas at this time.

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